RESUMEN
Public transport requires constant feedback to improve and satisfy daily users. Twitter offers monitoring of user messages, discussion and emoticons addressed to official transport provider accounts. This information can be particularly useful in delicate situations such as management of transit operations during the COVID-19 pandemic. The behaviour of Twitter users in Madrid, London and Prague is analysed with the goal of recognising similar patterns and detecting differences in traffic related topics and temporal cycles. Topics in transit tweets were identified using the bag of words approach and pre-processing in R. COVID-19 is a dominant topic for both London and Madrid but a minor one for Prague, where Twitter serves mainly to deliver messages from politicians and stakeholders. COVID-19 interferes with the meaning of other topics, such as overcrowding or staff. Additionally, specific topics were discovered, such as air quality in Victoria Station, London, or racism in Madrid. For all cities, transit-related tweeting activity declines over weekends. However, London shows much less decline than Prague or Madrid. Weekday daily rhythms show major tweeting activity during the morning in all cities but with different start times. The spatial distribution of tweets for the busiest stations shows that the best-balanced tweeting activity is found in Madrid metro stations.
RESUMEN
Modelling the spread of coronavirus globally while learning trends at global and country levels remains crucial for tackling the pandemic. We introduce a novel variational-LSTM Autoencoder model to predict the spread of coronavirus for each country across the globe. This deep Spatio-temporal model does not only rely on historical data of the virus spread but also includes factors related to urban characteristics represented in locational and demographic data (such as population density, urban population, and fertility rate), an index that represents the governmental measures and response amid toward mitigating the outbreak (includes 13 measures such as: 1) school closing, 2) workplace closing, 3) cancelling public events, 4) close public transport, 5) public information campaigns, 6) restrictions on internal movements, 7) international travel controls, 8) fiscal measures, 9) monetary measures, 10) emergency investment in health care, 11) investment in vaccines, 12) virus testing framework, and 13) contact tracing). In addition, the introduced method learns to generate a graph to adjust the spatial dependences among different countries while forecasting the spread. We trained two models for short and long-term forecasts. The first one is trained to output one step in future with three previous timestamps of all features across the globe, whereas the second model is trained to output 10 steps in future. Overall, the trained models show high validation for forecasting the spread for each country for short and long-term forecasts, which makes the introduce method a useful tool to assist decision and policymaking for the different corners of the globe.